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/\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/3144759858331056319/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/blog-post_20.html#comment-form","title":"0 条评论"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/3144759858331056319"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/3144759858331056319"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/blog-post_20.html","title":"十月围城"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"大响马"},"uri":{"$t":"http://www.blogger.com/profile/01567597381631051991"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$extendedProperty":{"xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","name":"OpenSocialUserId","value":"06528804082461310278"}}],"thr$total":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-838820714388654361.post-4032244871777346654"},"published":{"$t":"2009-12-19T15:19:00.001+08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2009-12-19T15:19:00.441+08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"杂谈"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"供求关系是决定价格的基本因素-谈房价股价"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003cdiv xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e昨天在交大饮水思源bbs的stock版讨论地产新政，大部分人还是认为收缩流动性和增加交易成本才能有效打压房价。\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e也许大家研究水平越高就越关注技术性的东西，却忽略了最基本的常识：决定市场那无形的手是供求关系。房地产市场，大家讨论最多、最拨动大家情绪的是投机行为——地产商的和炒家的，打压投机是大家呼声最高的也是国家这几年来一直使用的调控手段，调利率、调首付比例、调税率，花样繁多，什么都用过了，就差物业税没出台了，结果大家也是知道的，房价一直涨。\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e由此可见打击投机没什么用，如果大家还是不相信，参照一下故事吧，07年4000点的时候，加印花税，立马跌到3000点，但后来还是涨到了6000点，08年一路跌，3000点的时候又是降利率又是减印花税，可后来还是跌到1600。\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e当然过度投机的市场最终也会崩溃，但现在有数据可以正面目前是过度投机了么。看看上海的商品房空置率数据吧：\u003cbr/\u003e上海商品房空置面积\u003cbr/\u003e2008年初 735万平方米\u003cbr/\u003e2008年12月末 1100万平方米\u003cbr/\u003e2009年2月末 1211万 （其中商品住宅空置554.07万平方米）\u003cbr/\u003e目前 可能已超过1600万平方米\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e1997年-2008年上海市商品房及商品住宅空置面积消化周期\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cimg src\u003d'http://home.sun0769.com/focus/blog/perBlog/7/W020090512373987505399.jpg'/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e2008年商品住宅预售登记面积 1560万平方米\u003cbr/\u003e2009上海在建及新开工商品住房建设项目,预计预售标准面积约2400万平方米\u003cbr/\u003e（2400+1600）/1560\u003d2.56年，你说十年都消化不完，显然太夸张\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e今年前11个月上海二手房成交面积突破2247万平方米，1600/（2247/11）\u003d7.8个月。不到8个月就能充分换手一遍，应该还属于闹房荒的阶段，还没到过度投机的阶段。\u003cbr/\u003e\u003cbr/\u003e消灭投机吃力不讨好，适度投机可以让市场更有效率，大家对投机应该宽容一点，反而应该多关注供求关系。对于中国的房地产市场而言，供求关系就是两个因素：土地供应和适婚人口。什么时候18亿亩耕的红线可以破了，土地可以放开供应了，或者什么时候适婚人口达到峰值开始走下滑了，房价的拐点才会到来。\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-4032244871777346654?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' /\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/4032244871777346654/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/blog-post_19.html#comment-form","title":"0 条评论"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/4032244871777346654"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/4032244871777346654"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/blog-post_19.html","title":"供求关系是决定价格的基本因素-谈房价股价"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"大响马"},"uri":{"$t":"http://www.blogger.com/profile/01567597381631051991"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$extendedProperty":{"xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","name":"OpenSocialUserId","value":"06528804082461310278"}}],"thr$total":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-838820714388654361.post-4316748538489702389"},"published":{"$t":"2009-12-19T00:24:00.000+08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2009-12-19T00:24:00.799+08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"美女"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"宿醉 The Hangover"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003cdiv xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e\u003ca href\u003d'http://www.douban.com/subject/3233761/'\u003e\u003cimg style\u003d'float:left;padding:0 20px 20px 0;border:0' src\u003d'http://t.douban.com/lpic/s3742526.jpg'/\u003e\u003c/a\u003e疯狂的极品男三人组，还搞成带悬疑的倒叙推理方式，里面还有迈克泰森的客串，这个片子还可以更疯狂一点，不过那就要变成限制级了。总之拉斯维加斯真是一个令人疯狂的地方。\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-4316748538489702389?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' /\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/4316748538489702389/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/hangover.html#comment-form","title":"0 条评论"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/4316748538489702389"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/4316748538489702389"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/hangover.html","title":"宿醉 The Hangover"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"大响马"},"uri":{"$t":"http://www.blogger.com/profile/01567597381631051991"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$extendedProperty":{"xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","name":"OpenSocialUserId","value":"06528804082461310278"}}],"thr$total":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-838820714388654361.post-1641915743223802305"},"published":{"$t":"2009-12-19T00:12:00.000+08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2009-12-19T00:13:29.218+08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"美女"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"beauty091219"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003cdiv xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e\u003ca href\u003d'http://prettydaily.com/image/152409/sexy-legs.html' target\u003d'_blank'\u003e\u003cimg src\u003d'http://9.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kur92isI3q1qznhzlo1_500.jpg'/\u003e\u003cimg 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class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-1641915743223802305?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' /\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/1641915743223802305/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/beauty091219.html#comment-form","title":"0 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xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e\u003cimg src\u003d'http://2.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kup8dv3GyT1qzcc6lo1_500.jpg'/\u003e\u003cimg src\u003d'http://13.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kuswtg4rRK1qzrvxyo1_500.jpg'/\u003e\u003cimg src\u003d'http://10.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kuoroqFz1Z1qzwg17o1_500.jpg'/\u003e\u003cimg src\u003d'http://20.media.tumblr.com/tumblr_kuowse3f9l1qa78njo1_500.jpg'/\u003e\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-4684350521666457522?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' /\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/4684350521666457522/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/beauty091218.html#comment-form","title":"0 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X-Men Origins: Wolverine 比X-men好看"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003cdiv xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e\u003ca href\u003d'http://www.douban.com/subject/1792928/'\u003e\u003cimg style\u003d'float:left;padding:0 20px 20px 0;border:0' src\u003d'http://t.douban.com/lpic/s3691114.jpg'/\u003e\u003c/a\u003e感觉比X-men好看，因为人物比较集中，故事没那么散，打的是常规武器，比较带劲\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-2695532230759009831?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' /\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/2695532230759009831/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/x-men-origins-wolverine-x-men.html#comment-form","title":"0 条评论"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/2695532230759009831"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/2695532230759009831"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/x-men-origins-wolverine-x-men.html","title":"金刚狼 X-Men Origins: Wolverine 比X-men好看"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"大响马"},"uri":{"$t":"http://www.blogger.com/profile/01567597381631051991"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$extendedProperty":{"xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","name":"OpenSocialUserId","value":"06528804082461310278"}}],"thr$total":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-838820714388654361.post-4820273094050226129"},"published":{"$t":"2009-12-17T11:01:00.000+08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2009-12-17T11:01:00.619+08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"电影"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"血腥巧克力 Blood and Chocolate 生涩的狼人片"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003cdiv xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e\u003ca href\u003d'http://www.douban.com/subject/1937113/'\u003e\u003cimg style\u003d'float:left;padding:0 20px 20px 0;border:0' src\u003d'http://t.douban.com/lpic/s2599574.jpg'/\u003e\u003c/a\u003e生涩的狼人片，除了罗马尼亚风情可以看看，其他一无是处啊\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-4820273094050226129?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' /\u003e\u003c/div\u003e"},"link":[{"rel":"replies","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/feeds/4820273094050226129/comments/default","title":"帖子评论"},{"rel":"replies","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/blood-and-chocolate.html#comment-form","title":"0 条评论"},{"rel":"edit","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/4820273094050226129"},{"rel":"self","type":"application/atom+xml","href":"http://www.blogger.com/feeds/838820714388654361/posts/default/4820273094050226129"},{"rel":"alternate","type":"text/html","href":"http://niuma.blogspot.com/2009/12/blood-and-chocolate.html","title":"血腥巧克力 Blood and Chocolate 生涩的狼人片"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"大响马"},"uri":{"$t":"http://www.blogger.com/profile/01567597381631051991"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$extendedProperty":{"xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","name":"OpenSocialUserId","value":"06528804082461310278"}}],"thr$total":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","$t":"0"}},{"id":{"$t":"tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-838820714388654361.post-5588686779811787394"},"published":{"$t":"2009-12-16T14:02:00.000+08:00"},"updated":{"$t":"2009-12-16T14:06:58.073+08:00"},"category":[{"scheme":"http://www.blogger.com/atom/ns#","term":"电影"}],"title":{"type":"text","$t":"前女友们的幽灵 Ghosts of Girlfriends Past 帅哥美女爱情喜剧片"},"content":{"type":"html","$t":"\u003cdiv xmlns\u003d'http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml'\u003e\u003ca href\u003d'http://www.douban.com/subject/3006775/'\u003e\u003cimg style\u003d'float:left;padding:0 20px 20px 0;border:0' src\u003d'http://t.douban.com/lpic/s3597321.jpg'/\u003e\u003c/a\u003e帅哥美女的爱情喜剧片，虽无新意，但是胜在养眼、简单、好笑、温情，冬日夜晚合家欢必备电影\u003c/div\u003e\u003cdiv class\u003d\"blogger-post-footer\"\u003e\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\u003e\u003c!--\ngoogle_ad_client \u003d \"pub-6941191493629701\";\n/* 728x90, 创建于 08-6-28 */\ngoogle_ad_slot \u003d \"3089987350\";\ngoogle_ad_width \u003d 728;\ngoogle_ad_height \u003d 90;\n//--\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\n\u003cscript type\u003d\"text/javascript\"\nsrc\u003d\"http://pagead2.googlesyndication.com/pagead/show_ads.js\"\u003e\n\u003c/script\u003e\u003cimg width\u003d'1' height\u003d'1' src\u003d'https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/tracker/838820714388654361-5588686779811787394?l\u003dniuma.blogspot.com' alt\u003d'' 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帅哥美女爱情喜剧片"}],"author":[{"name":{"$t":"大响马"},"uri":{"$t":"http://www.blogger.com/profile/01567597381631051991"},"email":{"$t":"noreply@blogger.com"},"gd$extendedProperty":{"xmlns$gd":"http://schemas.google.com/g/2005","name":"OpenSocialUserId","value":"06528804082461310278"}}],"thr$total":{"xmlns$thr":"http://purl.org/syndication/thread/1.0","$t":"0"}}]}});